Feb 9, 2006
By Stephen Zerdelian, Special for Northeast10.org
We've arrived at the stretch run of the season, when teams begin to think about the post-season, their chances and the likelihood of success. Actually, coaches and players tend not to do this, as they are focused primarily on the next game at hand. How pragmatic. But for us, the media and fans, we love to look ahead and see what might happen. Let's take a capsule view of all the Northeast-10 teams, see how they are fixed for the last few weeks and what could be around the corner. (All records, stats, etc., through games of Tuesday, February 7).
1. Southern Connecticut (20-3 overall, 15-3 NE-10) - Defense is the byword for the Owls, who have been nothing short of phenomenal in that regard. Allowing less than 45 points a game (they've only given up more than 60 once!), the lowest total in the nation, Joe Frager's club has mastered the art of suffocating their foes. Don't think they cannot score, however, because Kate Lynch, Shamika Jackson and Babette Noah (all NE-10 All-Star candidates) have proven they can put the points on the board. Despite that, SCSU is a shade light statistically when it comes to scoring depth. Their five starters (including Anabel Perdomo and Kristi Stolle), who have begun every game this year, account for all but 13 points a game, leaving little margin for error if injury, foul trouble or ineffectiveness creeps in. They do have a few testers the rest of the way, including home games with Pace and LeMoyne, and roadies at St. Rose and St. Michael's, so their pursuit of the top seed will be hardly be an easy one. SCSU is NCAA-bound, and now it's just a matter of where they play their league and NCAA playoff games.
2. Stonehill (20-3 overall, 15-3 NE-10) - The Skyhawks have been the top-ranked team in the Northeast regional poll all winter and have a decent chance to remain there throughout the rest of the regular season. After a not-unexpected lull, where they lost at Bentley (in overtime) and at home to Southern Connecticut, Trish Brown's team got back on the beam with wins against Pace and at St. Rose (the latter a real nail-biter). Alisha Collins, the league's top scorer (18 ppg) and leading contender for Player of the Year, tops a solid offense which also boasts regular contributions from Caitlin Kennedy, Erika Stupinski and Kelsey Simonds. The latter is the likely NE-10 Rookie of the Year and turns Stonehill into a force to take seriously. The rest of the schedule is a sticky one, with road games at AIC and Asusmption following a trip to Franklin Pierce and a home game against Southern New Hampshire. A setback at UMass.-Lowell this week hurts and losing to SCSU (65-53) could prove a very damaging blow, as it gives the Owls the tie-breaker edge. Still, Stonehill is in an enviable position, and has their post-season destiny in their own hands.
3. American International (19-4 overall, 14-4 NE-10) - Trying to brand the Yellow Jackets as just a one-dimensional team (be it offense or defense) is dangerous, since they have the capacity to excel in either realm. Pete Cinella's charges, led by Sharmion Selman (a legitimate Player of the Year candidate) and Krystal Pressley, have a way of creating chaos at both ends of the floor and making things happen in their favor. A rough stretch in the schedule produced a 4-4 spell but AIC has flourished since then, and have home-cooking to rely upon as they try to finish as high as they can in the league. A trip to St. Michael's is their last venture outside of Springfield, as they end with home games against LeMoyne, Stonehill and Bentley. Granted, that's not easy, but they have only lost once at home all season. NCAA qualification is almost certain but Cinella would like to build some momentum heading into the post-season. AIC needs defensive deterrent Jen Nnanna back in the middle to help anchor the defense, but even with a less than 100% Nnanna, the Jackets are not a team anyone wants to see on their dance card.
4. Pace (19-5 overall, 14-5 NE-10) - This team seems to be lying in the weeds a little, but they are experienced, deep and can score in bunches. A recent 9-1 surge has sent Carrie Seymour's club into the top four, which would mean a first round playoff bye and a quarterfinal home game. They've got NCAA experience, scoring variety (five players scoring over nine points a game) and a much-improved road mindset, which lends the belief they can win away from home. Point guard Jesse Dlabola, post player Ashley Wallace and shooters Stephanie Klingele and Andrea Padelsky are just a few of the Setters capable of taking over stretches and giving Pace the initiative. Trips to SCSU and LeMoyne are followed by a season-closing home game against St. Anselm, so it's not an easy road. If they can reach the 20-win plateau and secure a place in the top four (which both seem to be a solid bet), Pace is a lock for an NCAA spot, which they deserve. They are as capable as any team in the league of post-season success and don't think anyone believes otherwise.
* I must interject here; the belief of this space is that the four teams mentioned above will be part of the eight-team NCAA regional field, regardless of what happens the rest of the way (barring an unlikely complete collapse). Last year the NE-10 had six teams in the regional field, the maximum possible. Here is where things get mighty interesting. The next four teams on this list all possess realistic hopes for reaching the NCAA's but must finish strongly (an NE-10 quarterfinal road win would be a major plus on that front). Makes the NE-10 playoffs that much more exciting, eh?
5. St. Michael's (16-7 overall, 11-7 NE-10) - After a rocket-like start, the Purple Knights have been akin to a win-one, lose-one' team, but have nevertheless managed to stay in touch with the top four. Jen Niebling has done a wonderful job in creating a winning attitude with the Purple Knights but can they finish with a flourish? After the aforementioned quartet, the NE-10 is likely to get at least one and possibly two more teams into the NCAA regional field, but who they will be is up for debate. SMC has the Rayner sisters, Dani and Jevy, along with Brigid Hegarty, to rely upon, but as a team they could do with finishing in the top four, which would give them a first round bye and a quarterfinal home game. It won't be easy, as they have trips to Bryant and St. Rose on the horizon as well as home games against AIC and Southern Connecticut. SMC does have the tie-breaker over Pace, if they can catch them, so a strong finish would help them on many levels, including quality wins. They've done very well this year, and should the PK's cap it off with a 20-win season and an NCAA bid, they'll have reason to party in Vermont.
6. Bentley (15-11 overall, 11-7 NE-10) - An unusual position for the Falcons to find themselves in but one they can work their way up from without stretching the imagination. A recent three-game losing skid (all on the road) put the brakes on what had been some serious momentum (11-2 preceding it), but Barbara Stevens' squad can mix it with anyone. Carolyn Gottstein has been a huge help this year in the paint, while Kate Kelley and Shannon Kirwan followed up league honors last year with solid, occasionally spectacular, seasons this time out. The Falcons have had their issues on their travels (4-6) but are miserly at home, where they've lost only once. A manageable schedule the rest of the way (home games against Southern New Hampshire and UMass.-Lowell as well as a trip to Bryant) before finishing with a clash at AIC means Bentley may be able to close the campaign in style. If so, they'll be that much more dangerous come playoff time.
7. College of St. Rose (15-9 overall, 11-8 NE-10) - The Golden Knights are a team nobody wants to touch in the post-season, since they have the ability to beat anyone, anywhere. Karen Haag's club has largely ironed out the regular stumbles that blighted past campaigns (six of their nine losses were by single figures, illustrating just how close they are to being a top four team), vital in building a case to grab an NCAA bid. Explosive Mary Lewis (38 points against Merrimack last week), increasingly-dangerous Linsey Onishuk and specialists Courtney Ludwig (from deep) and Petra Kulhankova (inside) allow CSR offensive flexibility but they'll have to close the regular season with a few big wins to really set hearts aflutter. They'll have their chance, since their last three games have them hosting Southern Connecticut and St. Michael's, sandwiched around a trip to St. Anselm. For the first time since Haag took over the program, St. Rose is a legitimate contender and bears watching.
8. Franklin Pierce (13-10 overall, 10-8 NE-10) - With a beefed-up roster and some experienced players, the Ravens have made themselves into a factor in the race. An at-large NCAA bid is an outside shot but the lack of wins over strong teams hurts their case. Even so, Mark Swasey's team has played well overall and managed to bounce back from a 2-4 spell recently. Heather Jacobs and Danielle D'Ettorre have All-NE-10 abilities, and the play of clutch point guard Stephanie Bergeron and a sterling batch of rookies have created a strong team ethic in Rindge. They have some massive games the rest of the way, not only for NE-10 playoff seeding but also for potential NCAA consideration. Tilts against Stonehill and Massachusetts-Lowell at home (where they are a puzzling 4-5) as well as Merrimack and Southern New Hampshire on the road (where they are a pleasing 7-5) are pretty much make-or-break for the Ravens. Let's see how they fare.
9. Assumption (12-11 overall, 8-10 NE-10) It's been a streaky campaign for the Greyhounds but they are not a team to look past when considering post-season upsets. Kerry Phayre's team has beaten Southern Connecticut, Bentley and St. Rose, which should convince anyone that has any doubt how capable they are. Pivot Megan Urban has developed into an All-Star quality player, joining Charde Floyd in giving foes trouble in the lane. Shooting has been a problem for AC all winter, though, including an unsightly 59% effort from the foul line. Hopes of a first round home game are slim at best but the Hounds can build some speed with a few late-season wins. They're faced with a trip to LeMoyne followed by home games against St. Anselm, Merrimack and Stonehill, so the chances of a winning record are decent. It might be beyond them to hope for more than that but you can never tell what might happen.
10. Massachusetts-Lowell (9-15 overall, 8-11 NE-10) - Inconsistency and lack of scoring have plagued the River Hawks all year but dismiss them at your own peril. Kathy O'Neil's team can compete with anyone yet the elusive ingredient that turns close losses into wins has generally flummoxed them. But a recent upset of Stonehill proves they do have what it takes to come up with a big effort. Emily Kordas and Mariette Guillaume have given UML veteran leadership while newcomers Antonnea Robinson and Shaina Berry have played their way into key roles. Finishing the regular season with games at Merrimack, Bentley and Franklin Pierce is a hard way to build momentum, and while their NE-10 playoff spot is safe, hopes of an upset in the first round could take a hit if they stumble down the stretch.
11. LeMoyne (11-12 overall, 7-11 NE-10) - Considering last year's disaster of a season, Dolphins fans can be forgiven for a shade of giddiness. The record is a proper reflection of their overall body of work, which includes nice wins (St. Michael's and St. Rose among them) and close losses (nine of their setbacks by ten points or less). Kim Wagoner has had a good sophomore season while frosh Kathleen Gladstone and Vanessa Holden (both all-rookie caliber players) have added to Jeanne Dupree's arsenal for the future. Not surprisingly their home road split has been stark (8-3 at home; 3-9 away), and they could sure do with better ball-handling (19 turnovers a game) and rebounding but young teams always have areas to work on. They end with home games against Assumption and Pace as well as trips to AIC and Southern Connecticut, so ending at .500 would be quite a feat. While LC might not be ready for a playoff shock this time around, just reaching this level is a testament to their improvement this year.
12. Merrimack (7-19 overall, 4-14 NE-10) - Head coach Liz Briggs has had a difficult first season at MC, where, with two NCAA Final Four trips in the past two seasons as a backdrop, success is expected. But it's not exactly panned out that way for the Warriors, who have been snake-bitten all year. After a 4-3 start, things have gone downhill for the team, losing close games (six of them by single figures, three of them in overtime) with frustrating regularity. Joelle Martin has had a superb season amid the struggles but the support she needed has not come to fruition. Rebounding has been the major stumbling block all winter for the Warriors, as they are being beaten by over nine boards a game, a massive number. Twenty turnovers a game does not help, either. Despite that, MC has a chance to secure a playoff spot and make amends. They close the schedule with home games against UMass.-Lowell and Franklin Pierce as well as road games at Assumption and Bryant, so their fate is in their hands. If they're in, who knows what havoc Martin may create?
13. Southern New Hampshire (6-18 overall, 4-15 NE-10) - In the race for the final playoff spot, the Penmen have made their intentions known. Rookie head coach Karen Pinkos deserves oodles of credit for establishing a winning culture and making, by force of will, SNHU into a tough opponent. The transformation, while still in the early stages, doesn't mean they'll end up in the playoffs but to be in the frame at this juncture is a clear sign of progress. Rookies Stephanie Houghton and Alyssa Whitney along with sophomores Alex Giannopoulou, Sara Tucker and Danielle Graunke form a large part of the team's core and have found ways to win a few games which, in recent times, the Penmen would have dropped. Scoring can be an issue (less than 55 points a game) while shooting (foul shooting is a brutal 54%) and turnovers (over 21 per game) have also stunted SNHU's growth. With a run-in that sends them to Bentley and Stonehill, as well as a home game against Franklin Pierce, attaining that final playoff berth would be quite an accomplishment.
14. Bryant (6-17 overall, 3-15 NE-10) - It's been a long season for the Bulldog faithful. They have had great play from irrepressible junior guard Joanna Skiba as well as transfer Shannon Perry but the season was stunted by an eligibility issue with the latter that cost the team four wins via forfeit. Mary Burke's team managed to get over that hurdle and pick up a few victories but it may be too late to recover and nab the final playoff spot. The Bulldogs have also has problems defensively and on the glass, places that were strongholds over the last few years. After a trip to St. Anselm, Bryant closes the regular season with matches against St. Michael's, Bentley and Merrimack. If they can reach the playoffs, they'll have earned it.
15. St. Anselm (6-17 overall, 2-16 NE-10) - The Hawks are something of a conundrum. They have a dollop experience (Raenielle Decastro-Cain and Lanna Martin), a few good young players (frosh Meredith Amyot and Justine Lyons), they defend and rebound decently and they have some scoring ability but it has not quite translated into that many wins. Monica Galamaga's team can hang with anyone in the league (witness single digit losses to Stonehill, Southern Connecticut, St. Michael's and Franklin Pierce), illustrating their resilience. However, they've been patently unable to pull off wins in those cases. The rest of the way sees the Hawks host Bryant and St. Rose and hit the road to meet Assumption and Pace, so in order to grab that final playoff spot they'll be required to do just that, win close games.
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What else is happening in the region, and who are the NE-10's main challengers from the Central Atlantic Collegiate Conference and the New York Collegiate Athletic Conference? Why wait, let's see
In the CACC, defending champion Holy Family has been the kingpin. Their only loss was to Merrimack in overtime at the start of the season; since then the Tigers have won 19 in a row. Center Megan Bauer, wings Chrissy Kosiek and Jen Andrews and skilled point guard Kelly Killion are experienced campaigners and are thirsting to not only send Philadelphia-based HFU to their third straight NCAA tournament, they want to make some noise while there. An improved CACC will help their cause, as they have been tested more often this year than in the past but the proof will be in the pudding, in other words, March. Should Holy Family not win the CACC tournament (and the league's automatic bid), they have a chance at an at-large bid. The truth is they're the only non-NE-10 team to have any serious shot at an at-large bid, but they'd be best served to win the CACC and make sure of their place. The league does have some contenders, though. Cross-town rivals from the University of the Sciences and Philadelphia University are solid teams in the tradition of the city and capable of beating the Tigers. USP is led by the dynamic pair of guard Shelby Rance and post force Leah Shumoski, who would like to return to the NCAA's after year away from the dance (they made the 2004 field). For Philadelphia, they would have to garner an unlikely at-large bid, since as a new CACC entrant they are ineligible for the league tourney (NJIT, another +.500 team, is in the same boat for a different reason - they are Division 1-bound, and thus ineligible, too). Led by Meg Abele and Nicole Mechell, the Rams are a solid team, though. Don't discount the potential of Bloomfield and Dominican, either; this pair of New Jersey-based teams can compete with Holy Family and cause an upset. The quality of play in the loop has grown a great deal over the last couple of years, making this batch of teams a solid and improving one.
Three challengers are likely to do battle for the NYCAC crown; picking a survivor may be a very dicey task right now. Adelphi, with potent perimeter play from Mary Lepore and strong inside production from Carlyshia Hurdle and Gianna Smith, is right in the mix. The Panthers showed their mettle early in the season by beating Bentley and losing a close one to Stonehill (without Lepore in the latter, it must be added), so they are capable of damage. New Haven, despite a recent downturn, has fine players in Ashley Hilton, Amanda Freeman, Tristan Jackson and Adelina Gentry, and better depth than they've had in recent years, making them a serious threat. A little further south in Connecticut we find Bridgeport, last season's NYCAC champion. Defense, allayed with solid scoring from Angelina Jimenez and Jennifer Rucker, means UB cannot be discounted from the title discussion. After this trio, it's hard to envision any other NYCAC team actually winning the crown, although there are teams around that could spring an upset. Queens, with high-scoring Erin White and Jillian Henn, can be a factor, while Molloy's Donna Lohrey and Rose Bruno give the Lions a fighting chance. NYIT, led by Anette Johansen; St. Thomas Aquinas, with perimeter scorer Kelly McManus; and Concordia, paced by Pam Karagiorgos, could all pull off a one-time stunner come playoff time.
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Notes and Stuff
If I had a vote (and I don't), here is who I'd select for the post-season awards in the NE-10:
Player of the Year Alisha Collins, Stonehill. Her scoring, rebounding and energy has been the key to the Skyhawks surge. She's had help, of course, but she's also taken her game to an elite level, a must to be a top-echelon team. Among the contenders are Sharmion Selman (AIC) and Joelle Martin (Merrimack) but right now, it would have to be Collins.
Freshman of the Year Kelsey Simonds, Stonehill. It's impossible to think Stonehill would anywhere near as good as they are without her. The one piece they've needed is a post player who can rebound, and she fills that bill and more. There are a few others in the mix but the distance between Simonds and the field is clear.
Defensive Player of the Year Anabel Perdomo, Southern Connecticut. Stats never do this award justice, and simply focusing on numbers can be a little misleading. Taking into account rebounds, steals and blocked shots is one way, while the other is to meld those stats into the fact that SCSU is the best defensive team in the league, and maybe the best in the nation. So, what better avenue to take than giving the hardware to a supreme defensive arrowhead which can turn defense into offense? Thus, the senior point guard is my pick.
Coach of the Year Trish Brown, Stonehill. There are a few legitimate candidates for this award but it's hard to look too far past Brown, a consistent winner at Stonehill who has led this edition to the top of the region. St. Michael's Jen Niebling would be a fine winner of this accolade, too, having turned the Purple Knights into a league contender. Others who deserve recognition for their fine work include Karen Pinkos (Southern New Hampshire), Carrie Seymour (Pace), Karen Haag (St. Rose), Joe Frager (Southern Connecticut) and Mark Swasey (Franklin Pierce), not in any particular order. The league is loaded with excellent coaches, so to leave anyone out is difficult but they all have done top notch jobs under a variety of circumstances.
NE-10 1st team All-Stars Alisha Collins (Stonehill), Sharmion Selman (AIC), Joelle Martin (Merrimack), Carolyn Gottstein (Bentley) and Kate Lynch (Southern Connecticut)
NE-10 2nd team All-Stars Krystal Pressley (AIC), Dani Rayner (St. Michael's), Babette Noah (Southern Connecticut) and Joanna Skiba (Bryant)
NE-10 3rd team All-Stars Heather Jacobs (Franklin Pierce), Ashley Wallace (Pace), Mary Lewis (St. Rose), Shannon Kirwan (Bentley) and Charde Floyd (Assumption)
NE-10 Honorable Mention Kate Kelley (Bentley), Kim Wagoner (LeMoyne), Erika Stupinski (Stonehill), Shamika Jackson (Southern Connecticut), Shannon Perry (Bryant) and Anabel Perdomo (Southern Connecticut)
NE-10 All-Freshman Team Kelsey Simonds (Stonehill), Kathleen Gladstone (LeMoyne), Stacy Boisvert (AIC), Jennifer Leedham (Franklin Pierce) and Meredith Amyot (St. Anselm). As usual, it's a deep class and there are at least 12-14 players in contention for a spot, many of whom would not be out of place on this list. If that sounds like a cop-out, ok, but I'll go with the quintet above.
(My own award) Most Improved Player Kate Lynch, Southern Connecticut. After a promising, yet quiet freshman campaign, Lynch has become the Owls top scorer (13.5 ppg) and offensive fulcrum. She follows last year's winner', another Kate, Bentley's Kate Kelley, in this category, so pay attention all you Kate's out there
Once again the NE-10 has had an exemplary season in non-league games. As a group, the NE-10 posted a 53-24 mark against non-league foes, with the NCAA's as the only remainder left to add on. A few of those have been games between NE-10 teams which have not counted in the standings (tournaments and the like) but while they would cut down on the loss total, they'd also diminish the win total, so let's leave it as is.
Although this is a women's column, I have to mention the Division II men's Elite Eight. If you are not heading to Hot Springs, Arkansas for the women's Elite Eight, consider attending the men's version in Springfield this March. It's set to be held at the Mass Mutual Center, what used to be the Civic Center, and the improvements are considerable. Seven teams from around the nation will be joining whoever the Northeast winner is for some sensational hoop. For my money (if I were not in Arkansas at the same time), quarterfinal day (Wednesday, March 22) is the best day of the year, where you can see all eight teams in action for a more than reasonable price ($11 for adults, $7 for children and students). Full tourney packages are also available. Check it out if you can.
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Please feel free to send opinions, questions, ideas, etc. to me at Anfield13@aol.com. Let me know what you want to know, and what you want to read.
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